Jul '09 30
Technically Speaking…
By Abdulmohsen
I previously promised to show you how technical analysis warned us of an impending disaster last year. I leave you with the charts:
The above chart is a two-year weekly chart of the KSE index. If you followed my KSE analysis in the past then you would have realized the significance of moving averages. Here is, in my opinion, happened:
- At the very top of the chart, when the index was at its peak, we saw the first of a number of warning signs. You might realize that the highest reading is illustrated as a + sign. In technical analysis, this sign is called a doji. To explain further, the doji sign might mean that a reversal might start because investors are indecisive.
- I would not give this doji sign much importance because I don’t really like the idea of having only one reading determine market conditions for the near future. I like to see more gradual and prolonged changes to make sure I made an accurate analysis.
- The first warning sign came in around the beginning of August when the 5-week moving average (the red line) negatively intersected the 15-week moving average (the green line) The intersection point is shown with the first arrow.
- The second warning sign came a month later when the 15-week moving average also negatively intersected the 25-week moving average (the blue line) In the past, I explained that the larger the time frame of the moving average, the more significant it becomes. This mean that the second intersection, as shown by the second arrow, is a bigger and more direct warning signal.

















